IT 2015 : What Things May Come

Voici un article très intéressant, issu du site www.gantthead.com. L’auteur y dresse une étude de ce que l’avenir proche (2015) nous réserve en matière d’innovations technologiques dans le domaine IT.

Morceaux choisis :

Seems almost impossible that 2015 is a mere five years away. Ever stop to think how information technology will change in five simple years? I pondered that idea, did some research and here is what I learned…

First, there is no shortage of opinions and pundits on what information technology will look like in 2015. The one common thread seems to be that it will be more vendor than demand driven, meaning that we will migrate to the new if for no other reason than to maintain support. What was disappointing was the lack of any transformational technologies on the horizon; mostly a lot more of the same, just faster, cheaper and more pervasive.

So let’s take a look at what others are predicting in the following six areas :

  • – Virtualization
  • – Cloud Computing
  • – Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)
  • – Notebooks
  • – Voice over IP (VOIP) & Social Networking
  • – Ultracapacitors/Nanpprocessing and Photonics

Virtualization

For 2010, Gartner placed virtualization in the ninth position for technologies to watch. From a practical point of view, virtualization perhaps holds the biggest promise in terms of providing cost-effective data center scalability. In 2015, Gartner believes virtualization will be part of every aspect of IT; it will be as ubiquitous as USB compatible devices.

According to Sun’s CIO Bob Worrall: “In 2015, the question isn’t what a corporate data center looks like, it’s, ‘Why do you need a data center?’ The data center of the future is nothing but a big black box of service providers. Even corporate enterprises like Sun, who have a traditional IT environment, won’t need that in 2015. As applications become more service-based, the need for our corporate data centers begins to diminish.”

He could be on to something. Even today, I question why midsized organizations don’t use Tier 1 ISP colocation services to house supply their data center needs.

Cloud Computing

From a business point of view, cloud computing is the term used for deploying applications via the Web (typically via third parties) instead of owning and managing the application within the control of the organization’s IT department.

Gartner’s forecast is as follows:

“From 2010 through 2013, will be all about market consolidation; while the third phase, from 2012 through 2015, will see mainstream critical mass and commoditization. In 2014, open source cloud technologies will emerge.”

recent study of Market Research Media forecasts that U.S. government spending on cloud computing enters the phase of explosive growth–at about 40 percent CAGR in the next six years, and will pass $7 billion by 2015.

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)

According to Gartner, “Service-oriented architecture (SOA) is a client/server software design approach in which an application consists of software services and software service consumers (also known as clients or service requesters). SOA differs from the more general client/server model in its definitive emphasis on loose coupling between software components, and in its use of separately standing interfaces.”

Combine SOA and cloud computing and you have a major component of computing in 2015. Add a dash of business process management and you get a market that was a mere $1.6 billion in 2008 growing to a forecasted $6.2 billion by 2015 (at least according to bpmfundamentals.wordpress.com).

Notebooks

Probably the most visible transformation that will be seen by 2015 is the morphing of PC notebooks into futuristic devices that are a green as they are cool looking. Of course they will integrate the latest in processor speeds, storage mediums and the like, but oh what they might look like! Below are some concept photos to titillate your expectations (courtesy of www.computerworld.com) :

According to www.dnv.us, “In year 2015 it can be expected that a standard PC be about 30 times more powerful…than today’s PCs.” No doubt these beauties will have terabyte storage capacity and access to bandwidths that would make us weak in the knees.

Voice Over IP (VOIP) & Social Networking

The good news is that with the proliferation of VOIP, telecom costs are going to get less and less expensive. Even today at the consumer level, you can get a “Magic Jack” that provides you unlimited worldwide VOIP through your computer for about $20 a year. And wireless VOIP is rushing to the mainstream as we speak. Telecom research company Analysys predicts that nearly 25 percent of all mobile calls will use VOIP by 2015 and will include instant messaging and multimedia support with normal voice conversations.

Social networking will also transform into a multimedia experience where voice, texting and even animated avatars will share like never before. Think of an environment like “Second Life” on steroids complete with 3D support and available on virtually any device (PC, TV, PDA, Tablet and more). It is hard to imagine, yet just think where social networking was in 2005 and where it is today. Now multiply that by 10…yikes!

Ultracapacitors/Nanoprocessing and Photonics

Among the most interesting technologies that are clearly way above my pay grade to fully understand are ultracapacitors, nanoprocessing and photonics, all of which sound like something out of an episode of Star Trek. An ultracapacitor is “a capacitor that has much greater energy density and power per pound than electrostatic and electrolytic capacitors. Used in myriad electronic circuits as well as hybrid and electric cars, ultracapacitors are also called supercapacitors.

With a lifecycle of more than a million charges, ultracapacitors are ideal for applications that require frequent, fast charges and discharges, such as hybrid vehicles that are constantly braking and accelerating.

Nanoprocessing refers to using nanostructures (structures the size of an atom or molecule) to create devices. We are talking small here, as one nanometer (nm) is one billionth of a meter. The uses for these nanostructures are vast and will impact a host of industries.

Areas where nanotechnologies will make their mark include nanotubes, utilized particularly in memory chips, integrated chips, optoelectronics and displays. In addition, nano memory cards and removable molecular memory media are nanotechnology-based memory storage devices that are likely to be employed in electronics.

Summing it All Up

Obviously only time will tell if some or all these visions of what IT will look like in 2015. My rule of thumb over the decades is this: It takes eight to 10 years for a new technology or idea to become mainstream in the world of IT. So roll on back to 2005, look at what was bleeding edge back then and if it is still alive and growing today, it will most likely be commonplace by 2015. For IT will be faster, more flexible and more ubiquitous in 2015 than ever. Terabytes will be the new gigabytes and processors will be running 1.2 thz (tera-hertz). People will be plugged in, turned on and wired like never before.

source complète : http://www.gantthead.com/article.cfm?ID=254678


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